Start with what the contract actually asks
A market title is a convenient label, not the complete contract. Resolution depends on the detailed wording, named source, deadline, definitions, and any clarifications attached to the market.
This guide provides a repeatable review for those elements. It does not decide individual disputes or replace the current official rules shown on a market page.
Why resolution review matters
Everyday meaning can differ from contract meaning. A reader may think an event clearly occurred while the designated source, date boundary, or defined term points to another result. The priced question is the written contract, not the broad news story.
Ambiguity is a separate risk. Even a strong forecast can lose money if the market resolves differently from an intuitive interpretation. Review the platform basics before treating probability analysis as complete.
The resolution-rule workflow
1. Copy the exact question and definitions
Record the full question, outcome labels, qualifying event, excluded cases, geography, and time zone. Expand vague terms into a checklist of what must be true.
Best for: catching differences between a short title and the conditions that actually control settlement.
2. Identify the designated source
Find the named official source or source hierarchy. Ask whether it publishes a final result, whether revisions are possible, and what happens if the source is unavailable.
Do not silently substitute a popular news report for the required source. Reality check: strong evidence elsewhere may still be irrelevant to the written resolution mechanism.
3. Map the deadline and time zone
Convert every date and cutoff into one time zone and record whether the rule refers to announcement, occurrence, certification, publication, or another milestone.
What to look for: events that begin before a cutoff but finish later, revised releases, delayed certifications, and language such as 'by' or 'before' that changes boundary handling.
4. List plausible edge cases
Write the strongest case for YES, the strongest case for NO, and at least one situation where neither intuitive answer feels clean. Include cancellations, ties, recounts, replacements, revisions, and partial events when relevant.
Best for: revealing whether a position depends on an untested interpretation rather than the forecast itself.
5. Separate forecast probability from resolution confidence
Estimate two questions: how likely is the real-world event, and how confident are you that the contract would classify that event as expected? A high event probability does not remove wording risk.
Reduce size or pass when resolution confidence is low. Limitation: no checklist can guarantee how a novel dispute will be interpreted.
How to evaluate a market's clarity
Score the market on question precision, source specificity, deadline precision, edge-case coverage, and consistency between title and detailed rules. Keep the score separate from the expected outcome.
Ask another reader to classify the same hypothetical cases without seeing your answers. Disagreement is useful evidence that ambiguity deserves a larger risk discount.
Limits and risks
Rule-change and clarification risk. Markets may receive clarifications or additional context. Recheck the official page and preserve the version used for earlier decisions.
Dispute and settlement risk. A delayed or contested resolution can tie up capital and create uncertainty. Avoid presenting legal or platform-policy assumptions as certain when the written source does not support them.
Getting Started
- Copy the full question and detailed rule text.
- Record the designated source and source hierarchy.
- Normalize the deadline and time zone.
- Write YES, NO, and ambiguous edge cases.
- Separate event probability from resolution confidence.
- Recheck the official page before adding exposure.
Use the checklist on one market before considering price. If you cannot explain the contract to another person without relying on the title, the research is not finished.
A disciplined decision may be to skip a market whose ambiguity cannot be priced with confidence.
FAQ
Does a Polymarket title contain all resolution rules?
No. The detailed market wording, source, definitions, deadline, and clarifications control the review.
What is a resolution source?
It is the named publication, authority, dataset, or mechanism used to determine whether the contract conditions were satisfied.
Can news reports replace the named source?
Not automatically. They can support research, but the contract may require a specific source or hierarchy.
What should I do when wording is ambiguous?
Document competing interpretations, reduce or avoid exposure, and monitor official clarifications rather than assuming your preferred reading will prevail.